Blair's Past Sullies His Future

British Prime Minister Tony Blair is set to deliver his final swansong on the international stage at this week’s European Union Summit, before he hands over the keys to 10 Downing Street to the eager Gordon Brown. Although Mr. Blair has yet to leave office, the potential job offers have been pouring in. Most recently, he has been linked to the posts of future EU President and Middle-East envoy for President Bush and the International Quartet.

Whether out of advance nostalgia for Blair’s time in office, sympathy for the waning politician, or out of the genuine belief that he deserves the positions and would serve them well, these offers are troublesome. The (almost) former prime minister, although very well-qualified, is not the right person for either job—thanks in large part to the Iraq war.

Newly-elected French President Nicolas Sarkozy, prior to this week’s crucial EU Summit, reportedly shopped Tony Blair around Europe as a possible candidate for the presidency. The title of EU President, which perhaps will not come into existence—Blair will actually have a say this week in Brussels on whether the post is created and included in a successor treaty to the debunked constitution—in theory, would be an excellent fit for the globetrotting and charismatic statesman.

His efforts—although maybe not enough for Bono and Geldof—in increasing aid to Africa and intervening in the war-torn Balkans have won him plaudits from humanitarians across the world. And his articulacy usually leaves audiences impressed. Who better to symbolically represent the European Union internationally and help set the agenda for the bloc?

Not so fast. Blair’s potential candidacy most likely would not even get off the ground. As former leader of Britain, one of the most powerful and Euro-skeptic countries in the EU, which has yet to join the euro and is constantly seen as nationalist and opposed to further EU integration, Blair has many strikes against him in Brussels.

Although one of the most committed Europeans to ever grace Downing Street, Blair would not measure up to the true Euro-federalist. His neo-liberal economic views, out of touch with many socialists and protectors of the welfare-state across the continent, would also be a sticking point—although similar economic beliefs did not ruin former Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Barrosso’s chances of becoming EU Commission President. Also, Gordon Brown would probably not enjoy being in his predecessor’s shadow again, even if it was only in Brussels.

The biggest hurdle to Blair’s EU presidential candidacy, however, has to stem from his primary role in the invasion of Iraq. An issue that still riles up many Europeans, from Madrid to Stockholm, the war is extremely unpopular, haunting Blair’s legacy. Unsurprisingly, a recent Harris poll notes that 75% of Europeans do not think that Tony Blair would make a good full-time EU president.[1]

Intense division among European Union members in 2002 and 2003, wrought by Iraq, could flare up again if Blair was put forward as a presidential nominee—not the result proponents of creating the post would have desired, as the EU President is supposed to represent a united Europe.

A Sarkozy aide recently defended his boss’ support for Blair's candidacy by declaring, “We want a president who is credible.”[2] Unfortunately, the ineptitude and chaos surrounding the Iraq war has, in the eyes of many Europeans, largely drained that quality from Mr. Blair.

The same, for the most part, goes for Blair’s other proposed future employment, that of Bush’s or the International Quartet's—the four-party mediator of the Middle-East Peace Process, made up of the EU, UN, US, and Russia—envoy for the Middle-East. Iraq-invoked sentiment spoils the good intentions of the job offer.

Although the former prime minister has experience with many of the Middle-East’s leaders, his perceived pro-Israel leanings and principal role in the invasion of Iraq would not play well in the region. His angry critics in the Middle-East would not want to listen to Blair’s thoughts on their problems, especially if he speaks for Bush. As Brookings analyst Shibley Telhami points out, "Blair is the third most disliked person in the Middle East after the US President and the Israeli Prime Minister." Blair’s efforts as envoy, thus, would likely be ineffective and counterproductive.

Many Britons and others around the globe, unfairly in my opinion, already perceive the prime minister as “Bush’s poodle”. If Blair became Bush’s personal errand boy for the very region in which he and the American president are believed to have helped destabilize, the negative caricature would be fully realized.

To be sure, it is regrettable that Tony Blair’s otherwise solid and admirable reputation, earned from spending a remarkable ten years in office, has been soiled by an ill-advised war. His avid Atlanticism and liberal interventionism shone on the world stage, and gained him many friends across the globe, especially in Washington.

More importantly, Blair’s political impact within the U.K. and across Europe, as a result of his decision to shift the Labour Party to the center and advocate the “third way” between state-led socialism and Lazes Faire free-market economics, has been tremendous. Mr. Blair has helped reconstruct the British and European political landscape.

The British and European Left will likely never be the same. As Philip Stephens points out, “Mr Blair’s central political insight was to separate the enduring ‘ends’ of a left-of-centre government - a fairer society with a wider spread of opportunity – from his party’s century-long addiction to the socialist ‘means’ of an ever more mighty state. What works pragmatism elbowed aside outdated ideology.”[3] And for many like-minded politicians in Europe, including those in the French Socialist Party and their counterparts in Spain, the lessons from “Blairism” have at least nudged them to modernize and move to the middle.

Britain’s Conservative Party also took the hint—after being drubbed by Blair’s New Labour in the past three elections—moderating its image as the party of tax cuts and the reduction of public services, and shifting to the center so as to recapture the support of “Middle England”. As Stephens notes, referring to the departing prime minister, “The better gauge of his political legacy comes from David Cameron’s Conservatives.”

However, these achievements are tarnished by Iraq. Like it or not, the prime minister will be judged on the war, an issue which evokes widespread anger and poisons his otherwise lofty status and sound ideas. And for that reason, Blair’s future does not look bright.

[1] Parker, George. “EU Citizens Want Referendum on Treaty.” The Financial Times. June 18, 2007.
[2] Blitz, James, and others. “Sarkozy Touts Blair for First EU President.” The Financial Times. June 16/17, 2007.
[3] Stephens, Philip. “Blair’s Remarkable Record.” The Financial Times. May 10, 2007.