Behind Turkey's Recent Elections

Turkey’s incumbent Justice and Development party, AKP, predictably won this past weekend’s election—by a landslide. In general, ruling parties usually fail to win a larger percentage of the vote the next time around. But AKP was predicted by almost all political analysts to do so, and they did. Why?

In part, their competition is lacking. The center-left CHP party, which is closely aligned to the military elite, ran on a platform of secularism—and not much else. With a growing economy—averaging 7 ½ annual growth rates the past five years—and a country full of Muslims, CHP was no match for the moderately Islamist and pro-market AKP.

Secularism is indeed an essential aspect of the Turkish republic, and has been since its founding in 1923 out of the ashes of the Ottoman Empire by Kemal Attaturk. Mr. Attaturk engrained on the nation not only an affinity for its founder, but also a tradition of separation of church and state, an ideal closely protected by a nationalist military. To that end, there have been four military-led coups since 1960.

Yet it was these age-old Turkish institutions, secularism and the military, which triggered the recent lop-sided elections. In what came to be known as the “cyber-coup”, the military in April published an online protest of the nomination of the former Islamist firebrand and current foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, for the traditionally secular post of president of the republic. AKP responded by calling for elections. And in a tragic twist of fate, the fiercely secular military further enhanced the standing of the Turkish Islamists.

Turkey has long been lauded as a model for Muslim countries, secular and pro-Western. Does the election change this analysis? With a large Muslim population, leaning toward Islam is a vote winner, and AKP has captured this sentiment. But secularism is not going anywhere, providing a check to what is seen by critics as the creeping Islamization of society.

Aside from secularism, Turkey is also a bright-spot in the region because of the moderation of its Islamist movement. Islam will wield at least a marginal role in Middle-East politics, as it does now in Turkey, and in this vein, AKP should be seen in the region as an Islamist movement worth emulating.

Turkey’s political evolution, and perhaps eventually that of the region, is “one that is embedded in cultural conservatism and in search of an appropriate synthesis between Islam, capitalism and secular, liberal democracy.”[1] AKP’s platform provides the right mix of these positions, hence its success.

Another of AKP’s attractive qualities is its more pro-European stance. This stands in direct contrast to its CHP rivals’ nationalist ambivalence to EU accession. Thus, despite the numerous obstacles inside and outside of Turkey to EU membership, the election also bodes well for its prospects.

What the West should be concerned about, however, is that Turkish public opinion towards the US and the West is at a low point. But AKP is not the primary reason for the plunge, Iraq is.

Turkish politicians warned of the dangers of invading Iraq. Their warnings that the Kurdish minority in Turkey would be emboldened by the formation of an autonomous Kurdish state in northern Iraq went unheeded and came to fruition. Kurdish terrorists are now accused of using Iraq as a staging point for operations in Turkey, leading to the buildup of Turkish forces on the border, poised for an incursion.

The military unsurprisingly favors crossing the border, much to the dismay of US officials. AKP in the run-up to the election was perhaps forced to posture in support of the measure, but the end of the electoral process should help cool things down.

Military elites, in a sense, lost the election without fielding a candidate. Their objection to Abdullah Gul’s nomination provoked the election, and the results were a negative referendum on the prominent role of the military in Turkish politics.

This phenomenon is encouraging for both Turkish democracy and EU accession. It would be difficult to find a modern country in which the military wields as much power as it does in Turkey. For elected officials to be in constant fear of a military-led coup is not helpful for the democratic process.

Moreover, the military’s political interventions frighten those in Brussels who favor Turkish accession, and provides ammunition to those against the endeavor. The election weakens the military's grip on power and shows political maturity, which should help Ankara's cause in Brussels.

While many claim the election results are a blow to secularism in Turkey, which may be the case on a very small scale, they are a positive signal for Turkey’s future. Democracy and the economy were electoral winners. Political and economic stability now reigns in Turkey—at least for the time being.

Polarization between the secularists and Islamists, however, could spark conflict. The military will be even more on guard against Islam’s role in the political realm, and could provoke a conflict with the Kurds in northern Iraq to reassert itself. But taken as a whole, AKP’s landslide victory is good news for Turkey and the West, and will hopefully lead to Turkey fulfilling its potential, not just geographically, as a bridge from the West to the Middle-East.




[1] Ozel, Soli. “Turkey’s Quest to Modernize Remains on Track.” The Financial Times. July 26, 2007.