Russia and China: The New Axis of Evil?

When President Bush coined the infamous term “Axis of Evil” in his 2003 State of the Union address to describe the non-existent coalition of Iran, North Korea and Iraq, these three states assumingly represented the biggest threat to American interests. Yet they had little contact or mutual interests—Iraq and Iran actually went to war with each other from 1980-1988—which is why pundits are still trying to grasp what the president exactly meant by the phrase.

If evil is equated with the ability and motivation to block American efforts around the world, then one might come to the conclusion that Russia and China, not the three above, now constitute the Axis of Evil. Indeed, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, they can frustrate most U.S. interventions with one word: veto.

And they are. Be it the genocide in Darfur, independence for Kosovo, or the nuclear ambitions of Iran, Russian and or Chinese intransigence denies the West the ability to effectively deal with these situations. The threat of a veto in the UNSC blocks any hope of a united international front. Seen through this light, Russia and China could be on roughly the same level as the original axis.

To hear the 2008 Republican presidential hopefuls on the campaign trail, it seems they agree. Mitt Romney recently deemed the United Nations an “extraordinary failure,” and proposed a democratic alternative. “We should develop some of our own—if you will—forums and alliances or groups that have the ability to actually watch out for the world and do what’s right,” declared the former Massachusetts governor.

John McCain has also floated a similar proposal. In the new issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, he suggests, “We should go further by linking democratic nations in one common organization: a worldwide League of Democracies,” which “could act when the UN fails.”

Last but not least, national opinion poll leader Rudy Giuliani has followed suit, albeit more subtly. Stating in his recent contribution to Foreign Affairs, “The UN has proved irrelevant to the resolution of almost every major dispute of the last 50 years,” he concludes, “We must be prepared to look to other tools.”

To be sure, UN-bashing is a common practice among GOP circles. The U.S. bypassed the UNSC by invading Iraq, but never before have mainstream, powerful Republicans unanimously recommended going outside the UNSC framework to create a permanent “Coalition of the Willing.” Their point that Russia and China continually hamper American and Western initiatives is well taken. But is a League of Democracies or Coalition of the Free really necessary or practical?

At first glance, the idea seems worthy of consideration. Why not sidestep Russian and Chinese obstruction and garner more legitimacy for Washington’s endeavors by creating a new forum?

First, whether other democratic allies in Europe and elsewhere would go along with this enterprise is dubious. Officials in Brussels still extol the multilateralism of the UN.

Second, what would stop Russia, China, perhaps along with other U.S.-labeled international pariahs such as Venezuela and Cuba, from doing the same and creating an anti-American organization? The world would be further divided, not only ideologically, but now institutionally, between the West and its adversaries. This may be an exaggeration, but the threat of this coming to fruition renders the idea counterproductive.

Finally, there is already such a forum of U.S.-led democracies—it is called NATO. This alliance has expanded to Central and Eastern Europe and fields troops in Kosovo and Afghanistan, among other global hotspots. If Romney and his counterparts really wish to seek other international outlets apart from the UN, then expand NATO. Such a scheme was recently put forward by former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, and included adding non-European liberal democracies such as Israel, Australia, and Japan to the membership directory.

Do Russia and China truly constitute an Axis of Evil? Of course not, they are neither evil nor an axis. They be autocratic, but do not—as far as we know—sponsor terrorism or subscribe to an expansive, totalitarian ideology.

Mutual interests may include thumbing their noses at Washington every once and a while, and pursuing pet projects at the expense of the U.S. in the UNSC—China’s thirst for Sudanese energy supplies prevents its backing of intervention in Darfur, while Russia opposes the U.S. and EU by supporting its fellow Slavs in Serbia in their quest to retain Kosovo—yet there is no long-term allegiance between the two.

Realist power politics largely lies behind the Eurasian neighbors’ belligerence towards the West. Preventing the superpower from getting its way, while at the same time increasing one’s power and prestige, is the name of the game. The two are playing it well, to the detriment of Washington and many of its foreign policy goals.

What is the solution? Aznar’s NATO expansion proposal should be analyzed. The Cold War is over, and the conventional military threat to Europe, the Kremlin’s inflammatory rhetoric notwithstanding, affords NATO the opportunity to enlarge beyond its original transatlantic script. Unfortunately, the obstructionist threat from Russia and China is real and here to stay. Branding it an Axis of Evil, however, is misleading. How about Axis of Exasperation?