Renewed Balkan Unrest Looms

The deadline for an agreed settlement over Kosovo, thrown down by Kosovar separatists to the Serbs and the world, has passed. Tensions are at a high point and neither side seems willing to give in to the other, raising the threat of ethnic violence, which marred the region for much of the 1990s.

Kosovo’s status has been unresolved since NATO’s 1999 bombing campaign pushed out Slobodan Milosevic’s Serbian forces and resulted in a UN administrative presence to keep the peace.

In an area roughly split between the 90% ethnic Albanian population and the 10% Serbian minority, demographics were always going to be a problem. Serbia’s historical attachment and geographic integrity, along with an ardent nationalism and responsibility to protect its brethren in the province, push it toward intransigence over the issue. For its part, Kosovar separatists’ desire for nothing short of independence reduces the possibility for compromise. Deadlock unfortunately was foreseeable.

On top of that, international politics complicates things. The U.S. and much of the European Union have backed independence for Kosovo, while Russia supports its fellow Slavs by threatening to veto any UNSC action that does not have Serbian endorsement. Kosovo is now part of a wider regional struggle—seen in Ukraine, Georgia, and elsewhere—for influence between the Kremlin and the West.

Fears that an independent Kosovo would set a dangerous precedent, leading to more separatist declarations in other countries, also underline the small province’s international ramifications. For the most part, the EU members states wary of recognizing a sovereign Kosovoa, a group including Cyprus, Spain and Romania, to name a few, are those home to restive nationalist minorities. Moreover, Russia specifically warns that if Kosovo gains autonomy it will have no choice but to push independence for separatist enclaves in Georgia, a measure Tbilisi would likely respond to with military force.

The good news is that Kosovar officials have shown public restraint since the December 10 deadline lapsed, promising to coordinate its decisions with the European Union. But this deference will not likely last too long; the status-quo must be changed. Unfortunately, all potential solutions risk violence and upheaval.

The lack of a resolution on Kosovo’s status endangers the Serbian minority, who could be subject to forceful reprisal by angry and frustrated Kosovars, which could then be met with a bloody Serbian intervention—a slippery slope indeed. The plan put forth by U.N. Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari, which envisions an independent, yet internationally supervised, Kosovo, failed to secure Russian and Serbian backing. In response, government officials in Belgrade routinely offer autonomy, short of independence, to skeptical Kosovars.

A likely scenario is a declaration of independence, supported by the EU and U.S., but rejected by Russia and Serbia. Both could possibly be bought off: Russia with leniency on another issue such as missile defense or Iran, Kosovo with financial incentives and warmer relations with the European Union, in the form of a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA), a way-station to EU membership.

Washington and the EU have to prioritize. Is Kosovar independence worth giving ground on other important issues? Certainly, a SAA, which Brussels seemed likely to grant sometime in the future anyway, would be well worth it to prevent the risk of violence on Europe’s doorstep. Washington has a tougher decision, although the consequences would be just as dire. Then again, Russia and Serbia could dismiss any attempt to obtain their acquiescence. Violence would then likely ensue, unfortunately, an all too familiar occurrence in the region.